The dam might not be breaking, but it looks like someone is at least opening a relief valve.
The results from the Alameda and Contra Costa Trustee Sale auctions from the week of May24-28th are in and they show a dramatic increase in the number of properties being taken back by the lender. We also saw a rise in the amount of properties scheduled for auction and a drop in the percentage of those getting postponed.
Will this week’s results continue the trend? We’ll have to wait & see.
Anybody have any predictions?
East Bay Housing Inventory Increasing.
For the third month in a row, we’ve noticed an increase in inventory. While this is normal for this time of year, the increase of nearly 46% is not; especially in comparison to the last 2 years. Last year we saw a drop in inventory over this same period of time of approximately 20%, while the year before was about even.
Although pending sales, (homes that are in contract) are also increasing, they are not keeping pace with the rise in inventory, (new homes coming onto the market). Months supply has increased from 1.7 months to a 2.5 month supply of inventory.
East Bay Housing Market Driven by Distressed Sales
What is significant is the amount of distressed properties that are still in this market. 57% of the sales in the last 4 months are distressed properties (37% foreclosures and 20% short sales). 72% of properties that are now in contract, (pending sales) are distressed properties, (16% foreclosures and 56% short sales). 47% of properties that are currently listed are distressed properties (17% foreclosures and 30% short sales).
This will vary from city to city, but overall, we’re seeing that distressed properties still play a large role in this market. However, fewer foreclosures have been coming onto the market. Short sales, on a whole take longer to close if at all. This is why we show so many as pending, and less that convert to an actual sale.
Trending towards Normal
There appears to be a developing trend. We seem to be swinging back to what would be considered more of a “normal market.” That is why the ratio between active and pending listings is dropping (from 1.66 to 1.28).
Typically, a ratio of one is considered normal, over 1 is considered a “seller’s” market, and under 1 is considered a “buyer’s” market. However, as you can see, this is not a typical market.
We may be seeing the beginning signs of a market stabilizing. Homes in the lower price range areas, especially in those areas that have taken the biggest “hits” seem to be reaching a “bottom” and are actually rising in some areas. However, with the weakness in the economy that remains, the jobs factor, and the increased number of homes that are in default, the housing recovery would appear to still be a long ways off.
If you’re interested in talking more in depth about the East Bay housing market, feel free to call me directly 510-333-4460
Recently we received a call from Kate Thompson w/ KRON4 in regards to East Bay foreclosures. Glen met with Kate and talked about the effects that foreclosures had in a San Pablo neighborhood. If case you missed the clip when it aired, you can check it out below.
Once again, Norm has been up to his usual tricks and here’s the latest East Bay REO / Foreclosure lists for you to download.
If you’re enjoying the lists, or have any suggestions on how we can improve, leave a comment. We always love to hear from you.
Anyone having read this years headlines has been hearing the same message about real estate; Inventory is up, Sales are down and Prices are down. However, little has been said about the relationship of foreclosures to our markets except in a very general manner, at least not until a recent article in the San Francisco’s Chronicle finally got it right. “Housing market muddle,” written by Carolyn Said, ran in this Wednesday’s paper.
The article talks about how foreclosures are influencing the markets. As always, these articles are never specific enough, nor quite up to date. The article uses DQ News as a source. This is definitely a great source to be using. However, the numbers used are always based on last month or the prior month. The principal message in it’s article “Bay Area home sales remain at a 2 year low,” is that “Last month’s median price in the Bay Area was 19.4 percent lower than the peak median of $665,000 reached last June and July.” The spreadsheet breaks down numbers by counties.
I’ve taken this a step further because markets are much more localized. You can view “Glen’s Numbers” (taken as of April 15), and broken down by city, HERE.
The influence that foreclosures have on markets is becoming greater than ever. The relationship between inventories, sales, prices, and REO (foreclosures), becomes a little clearer. Since February 1, 2008, in the last 2 and half months, 36% of all sales in the Bay Area have been foreclosures. Typically, banks do not spend much on curb appeal, repairs, clean-ups, staging, etc. They lead with price, and are finally becoming very aggressive as a means to lead the way in sales of those cities with far too much inventory.
Investors and buyers are now recognizing that foreclosed properties for sale are running at a discount. The message, “More people can afford to buy,” is clear, and REO (foreclosures), are getting picked up as bargains.
Those cities that have been influenced the least with price reductions are areas that typically have very little foreclosed properties and lower inventories;
Berkeley has a 2.7 months supply of homes on the market. Only 4% of its sales since 2/1/08 have been REOs.
On the other extreme, Pittsburg has a 27.3 months supply of homes on the market. 81% of its sales since 2/1/08 have been REOs.
Again, I encourage you to view the complete list of the 38 cities in the East Bay Area in the above link.
Thing are getting nuts out there.
This week, I’m just uploading all the East Bay Foreclosure / REO Lists at Once for you to download and check out.
We’ve got some big changes coming up that I’m super excited about, so stay tuned.
Photo credit Scott Beale | Laughing Squid
After a brief hiatus, the East Bay bank owned foreclosure (REO) lists are back.
Thanks to Norman’s hard work, you can download the newest set of active East Bay REO / Bank Owned Foreclosure listings in Excel Spreadsheet form. Since they’re in Excel, you can sort and modify them to your liking.
Once again, if you have any questions about a particular property, or purchasing REOs/Foreclosures in general, feel free to call us. We deal with this type of property all day and love to work with people who recognize the value that we can bring to a transaction.
Alright, without further ado…
So, this is that awkward Sunday after the super bowl when it finally sets in there’s more to Sunday than football from 10-8:30 eh? At least the weather is great out here in the Bay Area. In the upper Midwest, the temperatures are struggling just to get into the black.
We were thinking of putting together a “How to Buy an REO Property” workshop on a weekend day, where we would actually go out and tour and analyze a few active REO listings together after an introductory class & a catered lunch. If there’s interest, I think we could put the first one together by early-to-mid April.
In the meantime, here’s this week’s Active REO listings…
Since today is both Super Tuesday & Fat Tuesday, that makes today’s extra special set of East Bay Foreclosure/REO listings the ‘Super Fat Tuesday Edition’. (REO Wikipedia)
Using the links below, you can download the complete set of lists in one fell swoop; or if you’re looking for something in particular, you can download the list that fits your criteria.
Quick factoid of the week. Since we started publishing these weekly lists in December, they’ve been downloaded a total of 1450 times.
So without further ado, here’s this week’s lists…
Oh yeah, while your at it, don’t forget to check out our REO listings here.
& Norm’s post on How to Buy a Bank Owned Foreclosure in 4 Easy Steps
flickr photo credit: bitzcelt tag: fat tuesday