Glen's East Bay Housing Numbers (through March 2010)

East Bay Housing Inventory Increasing.

For the third month in a row, we’ve noticed an increase in inventory. While this is normal for this time of year, the increase of nearly 46% is not; especially in comparison to the last 2 years. Last year we saw a drop in inventory over this same period of time of approximately 20%, while the year before was about even.

Although pending sales, (homes that are in contract) are also increasing, they are not keeping pace with the rise in inventory, (new homes coming onto the market). Months supply has increased from 1.7 months to a 2.5 month supply of inventory.

East Bay Housing Market Driven by Distressed Sales

What is significant is the amount of distressed properties that are still in this market. 57% of the sales in the last 4 months are distressed properties (37% foreclosures and 20% short sales). 72% of properties that are now in contract, (pending sales) are distressed properties, (16% foreclosures and 56% short sales). 47% of properties that are currently listed are distressed properties (17% foreclosures and 30% short sales).

This will vary from city to city, but overall, we’re seeing that distressed properties still play a large role in this market. However, fewer foreclosures have been coming onto the market. Short sales, on a whole take longer to close if at all. This is why we show so many as pending, and less that convert to an actual sale.

Trending towards Normal

There appears to be a developing trend. We seem to be swinging back to what would be considered more of a “normal market.” That is why the ratio between active and pending listings is dropping (from 1.66 to 1.28).

Typically, a ratio of one is considered normal, over 1 is considered a “seller’s” market, and under 1 is considered a “buyer’s” market. However, as you can see, this is not a typical market.

We may be seeing the beginning signs of a market stabilizing. Homes in the lower price range areas, especially in those areas that have taken the biggest “hits” seem to be reaching a “bottom” and are actually rising in some areas. However, with the weakness in the economy that remains, the jobs factor, and the increased number of homes that are in default, the housing recovery would appear to still be a long ways off.

If you’re interested in talking more in depth about the East Bay housing market, feel free to call me directly 510-333-4460

-Glen

Click here to download a copy of my East Bay housing numbers through March 2010