Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers – Through August 2012

The latest edition of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers are in and here’s what I found.

• This is the 16th consecutive decline in inventory for the East Bay (the 38 cities tracked) and we are now at 2,329 homes actively for sale. This is the lowest level since July of 2005 when I first began tracking numbers. To give you some perspective; the high point was in July 2007 at 13, 053 Active Listings.

• The month’s supply for the combined 38 city area is now at 1 month. Historically, a 4 to 5 months supply is considered normal for this area.

• Our Pending/Active Ratio eased slightly to 2.79, due to the drop in pending sales as well. This is the 6th month in a row that the ratio has been above 2, signaling a strong seller’s market. (Keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal).

• Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets but declining somewhat. 26% of the active listings, 66% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 58%), and 42% of the sales over the last 4 months have been distressed properties.

As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.

You can download an entire copy of Glen’s Numbers through August 2012 here

Other Recent News

Median Days Listed Shortens as Inventory Tightens: NAR – DQNews: 9/5/2012, Esther Cho

Homes are spending less time on the market as supply conditions tighten, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released Wednesday.

Looking ahead, Yun said, “Our current forecast is for the median existing home price to rise 4.5 to 5 percent this year and about 5 percent in 2013, which is somewhat stronger than historic norms because of the inventory shortfall that is most pronounced in the low price ranges.”

Bay Area Home Sales and Prices Continue Upward Trend - DSNews August 15, 2012

“The market has really been lopsided the past couple of years, tilted toward low-end bargain chasing. Now it’s re-balancing, slowly, with increased activity in mid and move-up markets. But mortgage availability remains one of the big challenges in the Bay Area,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

It appears that roughly half of the 12.6 percent year-over-year gain in July’s median sale price can be attributed to a shift in market mix, where the overall regional median is tugged up by a higher share of sales occurring in the mid-to-upper price ranges. In July, price levels for the lowest-cost third of the Bay Area’s housing stock rose 9.6 percent year-over-year, while they rose 7.8 percent in the middle and increased 1.2 percent in the top third of the market.

Ten States with the Biggest Foreclosure Discounts: RealtyTrac - DQNews: 9/5/2012, Esther Cho

While RealtyTrac found that the nationwide average for foreclosure discounts is 31.74 percent, there are some states that are much more generous.

That being said, here are the states with the biggest foreclosure discounts, along with their average foreclosure sales price, according to RealtyTrac findings.

1. Massachusetts (47.09%) ($193,993)
2. Kentucky (46.33%) ($85,863)
3. Connecticut (45.40%) ($173,022)
4. Rhode Island (43.97%) ($123,648)
5. Ohio (43.01%) ($75,797)
6. Louisiana (41.99%) ($107,239)
7. Delaware (41.93%) ($132,142)
8. Illinois (41.09%) ($130,454)
9. California (41.05%) ($248,676)
10. Georgia (40.07%) ($104,561)

Fewer Foreclosures in July as Servicers Seek Alternatives: CoreLogic - DQNews: 8/28/2012, Esther Cho

The number of completed foreclosures saw declines both monthly and yearly, according to the most recent foreclosure report from CoreLogic.

Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic, explained servicers are seeking options outside of foreclosure.

“Completed foreclosures were down again in July, this time by 16 percent versus a year ago, as servicers increasingly rely on alternatives to the foreclosure process, such as short sales and modifications,” said Fleming.

“The decline in completed foreclosures is yet another positive signal that the housing market is continuing on a progressive path of stabilization and recovery,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic.

Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers – Through March 2012

East Bay Inventory Continues to Drop in March. Buyers are now in Search of Homes in a Competitive Market Place.

• Inventory for the East Bay (the 38 cities tracked) is now at its’ lowest level since January of 2006. As of 3/31/2012, there are 3,294 homes listed active for sale. To give you some perspective; the low point since I have been tracking numbers was in July 2005 at 2,607. The high was in July 2007 at 13, 053.

• The month’s supply for the combined 38 city area is now at 1.5 months. Historically, a 4 to 5 months supply is considered normal for this area
• Our Pending/Active Ratio has climbed to 2.26, signaling a strong seller’s market. This is the first time this ratio has been above 2 since I started tracking numbers. Keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.

• Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets but declining somewhat. 40% of the active listings, 69% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 54%), and 57% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.

One question that may come to mind is that if inventory is so low, with multiple offers more frequently in all price ranges, why the sales numbers not reflect that. Shouldn’t we be seeing shorter Days on Market and shouldn’t the Sales Price % of List Price be higher due to upward pressure on prices? The answer really has to do with the time frames being compared. The Active and Pending numbers are as of the end of March. Sales numbers are being pulled from the previous 4 months with properties that went pending 30 to 60 days prior to that.

In other words, the sales numbers are still reflecting what was going on in the market as much as 6 months ago, whereas the Active and Pending numbers are reflecting what is going on in the market right now. The sales numbers will eventually catch up and reflect what we’re seeing now as being a seller’s market, but it may take a few months before we actually see that and read about it in the newspapers.

As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.

You can download an entire copy of Glens Numbers through March 2012 here.

Other Recent News

Lack of inventory means stiff competition for buyers - Sunday, April 8, 2012 – James Shinbori, Paragon Real Estate Group

There continues to be a historically low number of listings and a growing number of highly qualified, motivated buyers. This year, there have been around 30 percent fewer properties available to purchase than in recent years. The drastic lack of inventory and surging buyer demand has resulted in a very competitive market for buyers. Neighborhoods that are appealing to tech buyers are experiencing the most competition.

Bay Area February Home Sales at Five-year High – DQ News – March 15, 2012

Last month’s Bay Area home sales bounced up a bit more off bottom, fueled in large part by investors with cash who were buying discounted properties in the lower half of the price spectrum. The median price paid for a home dropped year-over-year for the 17th month in row, a real estate information service reported.

“The market is still strange, just a little less strange than it was. We also need to keep in mind that, when it comes to statistical trends, February is the least typical month of the year. Over the winter you’re left with a higher concentration of investors and people who must buy or sell because of a major life event. In the spring, when many traditional buyers return, we’ll get a much better read on the market. Meanwhile, many potential buyers are still waiting for the lending spigot to open more. Drum-tight credit conditions continue to undermine housing, along with negative equity and the various uncertainties plaguing would-be buyers,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

The low point of the current real estate cycle was $290,000 in March 2009. The peak was $665,000 in June/July 2007. Around half of the median’s peak-to-trough drop was the result of a decline in home values, while the other half reflected a shift in the sales mix.

California pending home sales climb from previous month and year; tight inventory in distressed market persists – C.A.R – March 26, 2012

“A lack of inventory in the bank-owned (REO) and short sale market was a contributing factor to the decline in share of distressed sales in February,” said C.A.R. President LeFrancis Arnold. “In fact, REO inventory declined 24 percent in February from the previous year, while short sale inventory dropped 17 percent during the same period.”

Home Prices to Increase Modestly by Year-End: Clear Capital – 4/4/2012

Clear Capital’s forecast indicates the Western region could be turning a corner. The three-month numbers show the region gaining 0.2 percent, and pushing that to a positive 1.0 percent by year-end.

Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers – Through February 2012

Have we reached “Bottom,” and are we in a Seller’s Market?

Just when you think you have it figured out, the market continues to demonstrate that you don’t, and takes yet another turn. We thought the beginning of this year was shaping up to be very similar to what happened to us in late 2009 and at the beginning of 2010. After hitting a low of 3,690 homes for sale in December of 2009, a number that we hadn’t seen since 2005, what followed then was a slight seller’s market and a steady increase in inventory over the next 11 months.

After last month’s increase, we thought we’d see a similar pattern. Instead, we saw another decrease in inventory in February to 3,804 while pending sales continued to climb. Our monitor, the “Pending over Active Ratio” is now at an all time high of 1.76, a number that I have not seen since I began tracking these 38 cities back in 2005.

Simply said, we don’t have enough homes for sale in the SF East Bay Area and buyers are now coming back into the market. Most of the attention remains with the lower price ranges and distressed properties (REO & Short Pay), where first time home buyers and investors are competing, (approximately two thirds of the market).

We now have a 1.8 month supply of homes available for sale. There’s competition in desirable areas with fewer homes for buyers to look at. We’re starting to see multiple offers again and many over asking. Should I ask the question, are we now in a seller’s market?  Yes, I believe so, despite what we’re hearing in other parts of the country.  We may be reading in the next few months from now that December of 2011 was the “bottom” for the SF East Bay Area.

I don’t believe we’re “out of the woods” yet, but there seems to be enough positives in the news to raise consumer confidence levels and why we’re now seeing more buyers enter the market, who have been on the fence before due to the economic uncertainty.

• The employment market continues to improve.
• We’re seeing record low interest rates.
• After years of housing price declines the “bottom” may be in sight.
• The affordability index in California is now at an all time high.
• The robosigning settlement
• Although modest, new home building is beginning to show some signs of life.

Recent News

Q4 2011 Housing Affordability Index – Feb. 9, 2012

California’s housing affordability rose to its highest level in fourth-quarter 2011, matching a record high set in 2009, thanks to lower home prices and record-low interest rates, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today.

Consumer Attitudes about Personal Finances and Housing Stabilize Alongside Positive Economic News - Share of Americans Who Think Economy is on the Right Track Increases - Pete Bakel – Fannie Mae News Release, March 7, 2012

Americans’ concerns about key economic and housing issues are beginning to subside, according to results from Fannie Mae’s February 2012 National Housing Survey. Consumers’ attitudes have stabilized across most indicators – including personal finances, housing, and employment – demonstrating their sense that downside risks have abated somewhat compared to late summer and fall of 2011.

Highlights of the survey include as reported by CAR:

• The rise in confidence in the economy’s direction continued in February, with 35 percent responding that they think the economy is on the right track, a 5 percentage point increase from January. The percentage of respondents who say the economy is on the wrong track dropped to 57 percent, a decline of 6 percentage points.

• On average, Americans expect home prices to increase by 0.8 percent over the next 12 months (down slightly since last month).

• Twenty-eight percent of respondents expect home prices to increase over the next 12 months (consistent with last month), while 15 percent say they expect home prices to decline (down 1 percentage point since last month). Fifty-three percent say prices will stay the same.

• The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell rose by 3 percentage points to 13 percent, the highest level in more than a year, while the percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy dropped 1 percentage point to 70 percent this month.

• Sixty-five percent of respondents say they would buy their next home if they were going to move, up 1 percentage point since last month, while 29 percent say they would rent, down 1 percentage point versus last month.

Four States Hit Hardest By Housing Now Lead U.S. Jobs Recovery -Steve Matthews – Bloomberg News – Saturday, March 10, 2012

Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada — the states that were most hurt in the real estate collapse over the past five years — are now leading the U.S. labor market expansion

Builders rally on improved real estate outlook - By The Associated Press – Friday, March 9, 2012

Average rate on 30-year mortgage dips to 3.88 percen - Derek Kravitz, Associated Press – Friday, March 9, 2012

As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.

You can download an entire copy of Glens Numbers through February 2012 here.

Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers – Through January 2012

Welcome to the New Year!

The beginning of the New Year has a similar look and feel to what we saw at the beginning of 2010.  After hitting an inventory low in December for the year 2011, we actually saw a very slight gain in the number of homes for sale in January. This ended an 8 months streak of falling inventory.

Like 2010, with inventories this low, a slight “seller’s market” followed into summer. We’re starting to hear some positives in the market;

• As Clear Capital reported last month, “After years of decline, housing prices are expected to stabilize or even increase in some parts of the Bay Area this year, according to a new forecast.”
• The affordability index in California has reached a previous record high set in 2009.
• The Recent Robo-Signing Settlement.
• Home Affordable Modification Programs and proposed legislation addressing housing.
• Consumer sentiment improving as indicated by a recent Fannie Mae Survey.
• The employment market continues to strengthen
• Record low interest rates.
• Housing starts are still running at only one-third of their 2006 peak, but are up from their 2009-11 lows

Buyers who have remained on the fence due to the uncertainty in our economy are now beginning to slowing trickle back into the market. We’re starting to see some competition in desirable areas that have fewer homes for buyers to look at. This past month has brought us more multiple offer scenarios with pending sales going over asking.

As for the January numbers;

• The month’s supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is still at 1.9 months, again far below normal, and similar to what we saw at the beginning of 2010.

• Inventory typically drops off during the winter months plus we’ve been seeing banks slow down during this same time over the past 3 seasons with self imposed moratoriums during the Holidays.

• Our Pending/Active Ratio remained relatively high at 1.51, normally considered a seller’s market range. Keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.

• Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. 50% of the active listings, 77% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 60%), and 55% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.

Other Recent News

DQNews,  Summing up the Year – January 18, 2012

The Bay Area’s housing market rounded out 2011 much the way it started it: with constricted and atypical sales activity, lots of bottom feeding, and a largely dormant mid- to move-up market.

“We’ll remember 2011 as much for what didn’t happen as for what did. People put discretionary buying and selling on hold, except at the very top of the market. The spectacular gains in affordability, based on the combination of lower prices and ultra-low interest rates, was largely theoretical for many people because it was so hard to get a mortgage. That, combined with negative equity and economic uncertainty, kept people away,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

“Many of the deals that did make their way through the system were in the distressed arena – foreclosures and short sales. Much of it was deeply discounted cash purchases, disproportionately at the lower end of the price scale,” he said.

Q4 2011 Housing Affordability Index – Feb. 9, 2012

California’s housing affordability rose to its highest level in fourth-quarter 2011, matching a record high set in 2009, thanks to lower home prices and record-low interest rates, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today.

A Solution to the Housing Crisis Could Be at Hand -Short sales and other measures are starting to clear the backlog

By Peter Coy and Prashant Gopal

Lenders and government agencies have finally begun to understand how to deal with the crash by efficiently saving the homes of people who can afford to stay in them—and quickly recycling the properties of delinquent borrowers who are beyond hope.

As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.

You can download an entire copy of Glens Numbers through January 2012 here.

East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through December 2011

Well, 2012 is officially here & I just finished compiling the lastest batch of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers… here they are.

The December numbers

• 2011 comes to a close on the verge of what appears to be a market in transition. Inventory of homes for sale have dropped for the 8^th consecutive month bringing us to the lowest levels since December of 2009.

• The month’s supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is now 1.9 months, far below normal, and again reaching lows we haven’t seen since December of 2009.

• Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased again to 1.54, normally considered in a seller’s market range. Keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.

• Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. 54% of the active listings, 78% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 61%), and 52% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.

Some Comments on “What’s this All Mean?”

I asked this question a couple of months ago; “With lower home prices and record low interest rates, why aren’t more people buying now?”

Well, in a sense they are. It really comes to where and in what price range. We’re seeing an increase in activity at the lower priced home market levels in many areas where the focus is with first time home buyers and investors. Increased demand coupled with lower inventory is beginning to place an upward pressure on prices. We’re beginning to see an increase in multiple offers. For both counties combined (Alameda & Contra Costa), 51.2% of sales over the past 4 months fall into this lower end price range (below $300,000).

The mid price levels ($300,000 to $750,000) continue to be sluggish primarily due to a lack “move-up” buyers who have experienced a loss of equity in their own homes, plus the uncertainty of the economy, including job concerns and the difficulty in obtaining a loan.

The pending and active graphs, attached, seem to be following a similar pattern that we saw happen during 2009 and at the beginning half of 2010. Inventory levels reached their low point in December 2009 before rebounding the beginning of 2010. If early indications hold up, we may see inventory pick up again at the start of the year, followed by an increase in pendings, and in the months supply. The beginning of 2010 experienced a slight seller’s market. Will history repeats itself?

Other Recent News

Bay Area Home Prices Low, Sales Creep Up December 14, 2011 – DQNews

Bay Area home sales were ahead of 2010 for the fifth month in a row in November, despite limited mortgage availability and sluggish high-end sales. The median sale price fell again on a year-over-year basis, partly because of the slowdown in sales above the mid point for prices, a real estate information service reported.

“These days, buyers and sellers have to contend with two sets of problems, which sometimes play into each other and sometimes conflict with each other. The first is the lousy economy and the opportunities it presents, for better or worse. The second is the dysfunctional mortgage finance system. Interest rates may be at record lows, but the types of mortgages that are available have been drastically reduced and qualifying is a true grind,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

“This creates uncertainty. Many potential buyers and sellers appear to be in a frame of mind that says, ‘when in doubt, don’t,’” he said.

Bay Area home prices expected to stabilize in 2012

After years of decline, housing prices are expected to stabilize or even increase in some parts of the Bay Area this year, according to a new forecast.

Stabilizing prices are a sign of a healthier market, even though homebuyers still face challenges — tight credit, not many homes for sale and competition from investors paying cash.

In a report to be released Monday, Clear Capital, a real estate valuations company in Truckee, predicts that prices will remain almost flat this year — compared with a 4.7 percent drop in 2011 — in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metropolitan area, including Contra Costa County.

As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.

You can download an entire copy of Glens Numbers through December 2011 here .

East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through November 2011

Welcome to the latest edition of my East Bay Housing numbers. For the past few years, I’ve been compiling East Bay housing data directly from MLS data and publishing it for everyone to view.

• For the 7th month in a row we’ve seen another slight decrease in inventory, a 30% drop since the end of April. The last time we’ve seen inventory levels this low was in February 2010.

• The months supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is now 2.3 months, below normal and again reaching lows we haven’t seen since February 2010.

• Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased again to 1.33, normally considered in a seller’s market range. Keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.

• Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. 50% of the active listings, 75% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 58%), and 51% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.

Other Recent News

Housing Market Sees Signs of Stability: Clear Capital

The housing market may be stabilizing as house prices and REO saturation rates show little change on a quarterly and yearly basis, according to Clear Capital’s most recent Home Data Index.

NAR Forecast for 2012

NAR publishes forecasts each month based on the inflow of updated economic data. Here are the latest take-aways regarding the outlook for next year:

• No economic recession in sight. The GDP is expected to rise 2.5 percent in 2012. That is, the income of everyone combined in the U.S. will rise by 2.5 percent.
• The net job creation is expected to be 1.5 to 2 million. The national unemployment rate will slide to 8.4 percent by this time next year.
• The baseline forecast for existing home sales is a rise of 5 percent, while home prices will finally turn positive, albeit by only 2 percent. The total industry commission revenue, therefore, can be expected to rise by around 7 percent.
• New home sales will rise by 16 percent. A stronger comeback is in the cards, after brutal declines during the housing bust years.

Bay Area Home Sales Up From 2010, Prices Down

“We’ve been watching the real estate market take itty bitty baby steps in the direction of normalcy, but that trend paused last month. ARM and jumbo loan usage went back down, cash and investor sales went back up as a portion of the market. This may well be a short-term pause while the market recalibrates changes in loan thresholds. We’ll know more in a few months,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

C.A.R. October sales and price report

“While October’s sales were on track with expectations, the month-to-month drop in the median price was larger than usual for this time of year,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Because of the lower Fannie, Freddie, and FHA conforming loan limits, some buyers purchased less expensive homes so that their mortgages would meet the criteria for the lower limit, while others were unable to qualify for nonconforming loans that typically have higher down payment requirements and higher mortgage rates. The resulting change in the mix of sales drove down October’s median price.”

As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.

You can download an entire copy of Glen’s Numbers through November 2011 here.

East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through October 2011

The Pending/active ratio; this once reliable market indicator is now signaling that we are in a sellers’ market.

But, it doesn’t feel like we’re in a Sellers’ market

Inventory has gradually decreased since April, (down 19.2% compared to a 37% increase over the same period of time last year). Month’s supply is now only 2.7 months. We haven’t seen inventory this low since April of 2010. Lower inventory usually means more competition favoring sellers.

However, we’re seeing homes stay on the market longer, sell for under asking, more transactions falling out, many price reductions or homes that are simply being withdrawn from the market.

With lower home prices and record low interest rates, why aren’t more people buying now?

1)     The loss of equity for many home owners have kept many from “moving up” into the mid level priced homes.

2)     The continued turbulent economic news has scared many buyers back onto the fence, with concerns that things will only get worse or that their own jobs may be in jeopardy. They are waiting for the “uncertainty” in the markets to go away before committing to making one of the most important decisions of their life, buying a new home.

3)     Over 60% of the market now consists of first time home buyers and/or investors looking for bargains primarily focused on the lower end of the market, (homes that are selling for $300,000 and below).

4)     57% of pending sales in the area are now short sales. This has skewed the numbers because they have longer escrows and many transactions never close. Taking this into consideration, the pending active ratio is misleading and should actually be adjusted down.

5)     There’s a larger fall out of transactions due to the difficulty of first time home buyers getting their loans.

6)     Of the few remaining buyers left,  many are feeling that they will stay in their next  home longer, passing on the smaller  homes for something larger and in a more “move in” condition.

As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.

You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through October 2011 here.

East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through August 2011

The August numbers are in and for the fourth month in a row we’ve seen another slight decrease in inventory, a 9% drop since the end of April. This isn’t typical because we’re usually just starting to back off about this time of year.

We saw nearly a 32% increase last year during the same period. The months supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is now 3 months, slightly below normal.

Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased slightly to 1.06, again slowly returning towards a “normal” market range. Keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.

Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. Although this is slowly becoming less of a factor with listings.  47% of the active listings, 73% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 56%), and 49% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.

From Around the Web…

Last month’s sales fell harder in the higher price ranges: The number of $500,000-plus homes sold dropped 25.4 percent month-to-month and 19.2 percent year-over-year.

“There’s certainly a lot more discretionary buying in the higher price ranges,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president. “A lot of those buyers have the option to just take it or leave it and, lately, it looks like more have been leaving it. There was a lot of uncertainty out there over the economy, home prices and the nation’s future. And that was before the stock market turbulence hit in early August.”

– DQNews: Bay Area Housing Market Takes a Breather

“Home buying will be conservative in the months ahead until we get a sense of which direction this economy is heading,” said Robert Dye, chief economist at Comerica Inc. in Dallas, who forecast a decline for July. “No one wants to buy into a soft housing market. We’ve seen prices remain soft in many areas.”

– Existing home sales unexpectedly dropped in July – Alex Kowalski, Bloomberg News

As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.

You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through August 2011 here.

East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through July 2011

With confidence buckling and all the economic distractions we’re now witnessing, keeping pace with our local market statistics has taken somewhat of a backseat. My apologies for such a late post.

Following our round table discussion at our last Better Homes & Gardens agent weekly meeting, I came from it with the distinct impression that we’re now seeing many buyers fall into two camps:

1) Backing off and going on the fence again given all of the uncertainty.

2) Seeing the opportunity that exists. The bargain hunters are out and they’re feeding on the available low interest rates, having more homes available to pick from, and with less competition.

The July numbers

•For the third month in a row we’ve seen a slight decrease in inventory, a 6.2% drop since the end of April. This isn’t typical because we’re usually picking up steam this time of year. We saw nearly a 25.9% increase last year during the same period.

•The months supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is now 3.2 months.

• Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased slightly to 1.01, slowly returning towards a “normal” market range. Again, keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.

• Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. Although this is slowly becoming less of a factor with listings. 46% of the active listings, 73% of our pending sales (primarily due to the large number of short sales – 56%), and 50% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.

Other Recent News

Homebuyers have mixed reactions to market swings - Eve Mitchell, Contra Costa Times

“The past two weeks have certainly been a test for the Bay Area housing market. Wild stock swings, the credit downgrade and continuing concerns about the economy have certainly weighed on buyers, sellers and their agents.”

Mortgage rates fall to 30-year near record low -Derek Kravitz, Associated Press

“Fixed mortgage rates fell to at or near record lows. That’s good news for the few who can afford to buy a home or are able to refinance. But the rates have done little to lift the ailing housing market.”

“Many people can’t take advantage of the low mortgage rates. Banks are insisting on higher credit scores and larger down payments from applicants. Others have too little equity invested in their homes to qualify for loans.”

As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.

You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through July 2011 here.

East Bay Housing Data – Glen’s Numbers through June 2011

The latest East Bay Housing numbers are in and for the second month in a row we’ve seen a slight decrease in inventory, 4.6% since the end of April. This isn’t typical because we’re usually picking up steam this time of year. We saw nearly a 14% increase last year. The months supply for the combined 38 city area that I track is now 3.3 months.

Our Pending/Active Ratio has increased slightly to .99, slowly returning towards a “normal” market range. Again, keep in mind that this number is overstated due to the large number of short sales that remain in pending status for longer periods than normal.

Distressed properties, (REOs and Short Sales), are still a large part of our local markets. Although this is slowly becoming less of a factor with listings. 45% of the active listings, 68% of our pending sales and 52% of the sales over the last 4 months are distressed properties.

Other Recent Housing News

A MacroMarkets survey of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts regarding their 5-year expectations for future home prices in the United States showed that…

“A significant majority of our panelists believe that the bottom for home prices arrived in the first quarter or will arrive sometime before year-end (2011). Despite persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and unprecedented housing market dysfunction, almost two-thirds of the panelists see the U.S. residential real estate market as at an historic turning point,” Robert Shiller said in a statement.

Price Expectations Survey, compiled from 108 responses of a diverse group of economists, real estate. “69 panelists who are currently forecasting a 2011 turning point predict less than two percent average annual growth in nominal home prices over the five-year period ending December 2015.”

If we really are close to a true bottom in home prices, that this combined with the continued low interest rates makes for a favorable buying environment.

From Reality Check: It’s a homebuyer’s market

“You’re seeing more and more markets across the country right now where the cost to acquire and own property financially simply makes more sense than renting,” says Budge Huskey, president and chief operating officer of Coldwell Banker Real Estate.

Huskey says buyers need to focus on their local market conditions instead of reacting to what they read about nationally.

We know there is a pent up demand from buyers simply looking for the right time, he says: “They’re trying to time what they consider to be the bottom of the market, which we know is almost impossible to do.”

If you’re looking to buy do your homework, consult a banker, and look only at homes you can comfortably afford. If it’s your first, remember it doesn’t need to be your dream home. Buying a starter, building equity, and trading up remains a good strategy.

As always, I’m available if you want to talk about the market, or explore your options for buying, selling or investing in East Bay real estate. You can reach me directly at 510.333.4460.

You can download an entire copy of Glen’s East Bay Housing Numbers Through June 2011 here.